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Comparison of forecast and actual business

For fiscal 2013 we had expected the volatile, sideways price trend for raw materials, especially petrochemical raw materials, to continue. During the first nine months, however, procurement prices for our raw materials declined overall compared with the prior-year period, especially because of falling prices for butadiene.

Business development in the first nine months of 2013 was held back by what remained a challenging economic environment. As expected, the situation varied from one segment to another with demand for the products of our Performance Polymers segment remaining weak. In the Advanced Intermediates segment, the forecast of continuing good demand for our agrochemical products proved correct, and sales came in level with the corresponding period of last year. Sales of the Performance Chemicals segment, however, receded in all regions despite largely stable prices and volumes and were weighed down by shifts in currency parities.

EBITDA pre exceptionals for the first nine months of 2013 came in at €559 million. We already stated in our Half-Year Financial Report that the attainment of the earnings target for 2014 – EBITDA pre exceptionals of €1.4 billion – is no longer realistic given the persistently weak demand in the current year.

As usual, the guidance we are now issuing for the current year can be found in the Outlook section of this interim management report.

Comparison of Forecast and Actual Business in 2013
  Forecast for 2013 in
Annual Report 2012/
 Q1 Interim Report
Forecast for 2013 in
H1 Interim Report
Q3 Interim Report
9M 2013
Business development: Group      
EBITDA pre exceptionals EBITDA pre exceptionals
in 2013: below €1 billion
EBITDA pre exceptionals in 2013:
 €700 million to €800 million
9M: €559 million
Business development: segments      
Performance Polymers Most dynamic development in
the emerging markets of Asia
Continuing weak demand;
most dynamic development in
the emerging markets of Asia
9M: sales –15%
Advanced Intermediates Good demand for agrochemicals Continuing good demand 9M: sales on prior-year level
Performance Chemicals Demand stimulus from
North America and Asia
Unchanged 9M: sales – 4%
Raw material prices Sideways movement in
procurement costs and
continuing volatility
Unchanged Below prior-year level
Financial condition: Group      
Cash outflows for capital expenditures €650–700 million approx. €600 million 9M: €398 million